二、2016年經濟社會發展要引領經濟新常態、貫徹發展新理念 | II. Guiding the New Normal and Applying the New Development Philosophy in 2016 |
2016年是全面建成小康社會決勝階段的開局之年,是推進結構性改革的攻堅之年。做好2016年經濟工作,對于全面建成小康社會,實現“十三五”奮斗目標,具有十分重要的意義。 | This is the first year of the decisive stage in finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and it is also an important year for surmounting the difficulties we face in the push toward structural reform. Effectively carrying out our economic work for this year is hugely important to ensuring that we can finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects within the 13th Five-Year Plan Period (2016-2020). |
(一)總體要求 | 1. General Requirements |
全面貫徹黨的十八大和十八屆三中、四中、五中全會精神,以鄧小平理論、“三個代表”重要思想、科學發展觀為指導,深入貫徹習近平總書記系列重要講話精神,加強和改善黨對經濟工作的領導,統籌國內國際兩個大局,按照“五位一體”總體布局和“四個全面”戰略布局,牢固樹立和貫徹落實創新、協調、綠色、開放、共享的發展理念,適應經濟發展新常態,堅持改革開放,堅持穩中求進工作總基調,堅持穩增長、調結構、惠民生、防風險,實行宏觀政策要穩、產業政策要準、微觀政策要活、改革政策要實、社會政策要托底的總體思路,保持經濟運行在合理區間,戰略上堅持持久戰,戰術上打好殲滅戰,著力加強結構性改革,在適度擴大總需求的同時,去產能、去庫存、去杠桿、降成本、補短板,提高供給體系質量和效率,提高投資有效性,加快培育新的發展動能,改造提升傳統比較優勢,增強持續增長動力,推動我國社會生產力水平整體改善,努力實現“十三五”時期經濟社會發展的良好開局。 | We need to fully implement the guiding principles of the 18th National Party Congress and the third, fourth, and fifth plenary sessions of the 18th CPC Central Committee; follow the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Theory of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development; and fully put into practice the guidelines from General Secretary Xi Jinping' s major political addresses. We need to strengthen and improve the Party' s leadership over economic work; coordinate China's domestic and international efforts; act in accordance with the overall plan for promoting all-round socialist economic, political, cultural, social, and ecological development and the Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy*; and keep firmly in mind and put into practice the philosophy of innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development. We need to adapt ourselves to the new normal in China's economic development; adhere to the reform and opening up policy as well as the general principle of seeking progress while keeping performance stable; and continue to ensure steady economic growth, make structural adjustments, improve the standard of living, and guard against risks. We need to follow the general guidelines of keeping macro policies stable, industrial policies targeted, micro policies flexible, and reform policies practical, while also making sure social policies meet people's basic needs. The economy needs to continue operating within an appropriate range. We must be strategically prepared for a prolonged struggle, and tactically well prepared so that the challenges we may face can be overcome. We will intensify structural reform-as we increase aggregate demand by an appropriate degree, we will also work to cut overcapacity and excess inventory, deleverage, reduce costs, and strengthen points of weakness in order to improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system. Moreover, we will increase the effectiveness of investment, accelerate the fostering of new driving forces for development, upgrade and improve traditional comparative advantages, and strengthen the drivers for sustainable growth so that China's overall productivity improves and its economic and social development gets off to a good start for the 13th Five-Year Plan period. * The Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy refers to making comprehensive moves to finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, deepen reform, advance the law-based governance of China, and strengthen Party self-conduct. |
(二)主要預期目標 | 2. Major Targets |
按照上述總體要求,綜合考慮需要和可能,提出2016年經濟社會發展的主要預期目標: | Acting in line with the general requirements listed above and taking into account both what is necessary and what is possible, we have set forth the main targets for China's economic and social development in 2016 as follows: |
——保持經濟平穩健康發展。國內生產總值預期增長6.5%-7%。主要考慮:一是為“十三五”全面建成小康社會打下好的基礎。到2020年全面建成小康社會,“十三五”期間需要經濟年均增長6.5%以上,如果今年增速低于6.5%,后幾年就需要提高增速。為避免壓力推后,今年預期目標設定為6.5%-7%,可以爭取主動。二是更加有效地促進就業。從經濟增長與就業關系看,6.5%-7%的經濟增長能夠帶動1000萬人以上的城鎮新增就業。三是更加積極地引導預期增強信心。6.5%-7%的增長預期目標,擴大了可接受的經濟增速彈性范圍,與我國經濟增長潛力和市場預期相吻合,能夠起到提振信心的積極作用。同時也要看到,我國發展環境更加錯綜復雜,經濟增速仍在探底之中,實現這一目標還需要更大力度的政策和更加艱苦的努力。 | - Ensuring steady and sound economic development GDP is projected to grow by 6.5-7%. In setting this target, we have made the following considerations: First, such a rate is necessary for laying a good foundation for achieving the goal of finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. To attain this goal by 2020, the economy needs to grow at an annual average rate of above 6.5% during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Should the economy grow slower than 6.5% this year, growth rates for the next four years would have to be higher. This year's target of GDP growth between 6.5% and 7% will help us to gain the initiative and avoid increasing pressure for higher growth rates over the next few years. Second, this rate will help to effectively stimulate employment. In view of the correlation between economic growth and employment, a growth rate of between 6.5% and 7% should be able to create more than 10 million urban jobs. Third, such a rate is conducive to guiding market expectations and boosting confidence. As an elastic range of acceptable economic growth rates, this target is in line with China's potential growth rate and market expectations, which will allow it to play a positive role in helping to bolster confidence. At the same time, we are also aware that China will face a more complicated development environment this year and the slowdown in our economic growth has not yet been reversed. This means that stronger policies and greater efforts will be required if we are to achieve the targeted growth rate. |
——經濟提質增效升級取得新進展。投資、消費保持穩定增長,消費對經濟增長的貢獻率穩步提高。農業基礎進一步加強,工業轉型升級取得積極成效,戰略性新興產業加快發展,服務業占國內生產總值比重繼續提高。科技進步對經濟發展支撐作用增強,研究與試驗發展經費與國內生產總值之比穩定提高。單位國內生產總值能耗和二氧化碳排放量分別下降3.4%以上和3.9%以上,萬元國內生產總值用水量下降5.1%,化學需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫、氮氧化物排放量分別下降2%、2%、3%、3%,細顆粒物(PM2.5)未達標地級及以上城市濃度降低3%,地級及以上城市空氣質量優良天數比率達到77%,地表水達到或好于Ⅲ類水體比例66.5%,劣V類水體比例控制在9.2%以內。 | - Making further progress in achieving a better-quality, more efficient, upgraded economy Both investment and consumption are projected to continue growing steadily, and the contribution of consumption toward economic growth is also projected to continue rising. The foundation of agriculture will be further strengthened, positive results will be achieved in industrial transformation and upgrading, the growth of strategic emerging industries will accelerate, and the contribution of the value-added of the service sector to GDP will continue to increase. Scientific and technological progress is expected to play a greater role in supporting economic growth and R&D spending as a percentage of GDP will be increased steadily. Energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by at least 3.4% and 3.9% respectively, water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP will fall by 5.1%; and chemical oxygen demand is projected to fall by 2%, ammonia nitrogen by 2%, sulfur dioxide emissions by 3%, and nitrogen oxide emissions by 3%. For those cities at prefectural level or above that fell short of the national standards for PM2.5 last year, their PM2.5 concentrations will be cut by 3% this year; and air quality in cities at prefectural level or above is expected to be good or excellent for 77% of the year. The proportion of surface water with a water quality rating of Grade III or higher will reach 66.5%, while the proportion of that lower than Grade V will be kept within 9.2%. |
——價格總水平基本穩定。居民消費價格漲幅預期目標為3%左右。主要考慮:一是翹尾因素略高于上年。據測算,今年翹尾因素的影響比上年的0.5%有所上升。二是存在一些新漲價因素。需求偏弱決定了物價不具備大幅反彈的基礎,但考慮到人工等成本上升還會推動服務價格上漲,少數農產品存在周期性波動的可能,加上推進價格改革的影響,預計新漲價因素也會有所提升。三是積極引導市場預期。為改善通縮預期,將價格總水平預期目標適當定高一些。 | - Keeping the overall price level basically stable In setting a targeted increase of around 3% for CPI, we have taken the following into account: First, the continued impact from last year's CPI increase will be slightly greater than that of the year before. According to our forecast, the contribution of the previous year's CPI increase on the growth of CPI this year will be slightly higher than last year's 0.5%. Second, new factors will contribute to an increase in prices. Although weak demand will make a significant price rebound almost impossible, there will still be additional factors driving price increases: a rise in prices of services as a result of an increase in labor costs, the possibility of cyclical price fluctuations of a number of agricultural products, and the impact of further price reforms. Third, this target will help to guide market expectations. A target of higher price increases will be conducive to reducing expectations of deflation. |
——民生福祉繼續增加。城鎮新增就業1000萬人以上,城鎮登記失業率控制在4.5%以內,既突出保就業的底線,又為化解過剩產能、推進企業兼并重組、應對隱性失業顯性化留出一定余地。居民收入增長與經濟增長同步,城鄉收入差距進一步縮小,農村貧困人口減少1000萬人以上。戶籍人口城鎮化率提高1.3個百分點以上。社會保障制度繼續完善,社會保險統籌層次進一步提高,覆蓋面繼續擴大,保障水平適度提高。教育、衛生、文化等基本公共服務覆蓋范圍和均等化水平不斷提高。 | - Continuing to improve living standards More than 10 million new urban jobs are expected to be created this year, and the registered urban unemployment rate will be kept within 4.5%. This will help to ensure that employment remains stable and will also provide leeway to address overcapacity, carry out enterprise mergers and reorganizations, and respond to the issue of hidden unemployment. Personal income will increase in step with economic growth and the income gap between urban and rural residents will continue to narrow. The number of rural residents living in poverty will be reduced by over 10 million and the percentage of the population registered as urban residents will increase by more than 1.3 percentage points. In order to ensure continuous improvement of the social security system, the overall management of social insurance accounts will be turned over to higher-level authorities, coverage will continue to be expanded, and the level of benefits will be increased appropriately. The coverage and equitable delivery of education, health care, culture, and other basic public services will continue to expand. |
——國際收支保持基本平衡。貨物貿易出口增速高于世界貿易增長水平,進口規模擴大,服務貿易占外貿總額比重繼續提高。利用外資保持增長,對外直接投資較快增長。 | - Keeping the equilibrium in the balance of payments The growth rate in the export of goods from China is projected to be faster than that of world trade, the volume of imports is expected to expand, and the proportion of trade in services in relation to the total volume of foreign trade will continue to increase. Foreign investment utilized by China will keep rising, and outbound direct investment is expected to grow rapidly. |
(三)宏觀經濟政策取向 | 3. Orientation of Macroeconomic Policies |
中央經濟工作會議對適應引領經濟發展新常態提出了明確要求,特別是對新常態怎么看、新常態下怎么干,強調了“三個必須”和“十個更加注重”。“十三五”規劃《建議》提出了創新、協調、綠色、開放、共享新發展理念,將引領“十三五”乃至更長時期的經濟社會發展。實現2016年經濟社會發展目標,要圍繞引領經濟新常態、貫徹發展新理念,在適度擴大總需求的同時,著力加強供給側結構性改革,落實好宏觀政策要穩、產業政策要準、微觀政策要活、改革政策要實、社會政策要托底的總體思路,做到相互配合、協調發力。 | Clear requirements were put forth at the Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing last December for adapting to and guiding the new normal in economic development. In particular, the conference examined how the new normal should be viewed and handled, and in light of this, three approaches we must follow and ten areas of effort we need to highlight were emphasized. The new philosophy of innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development, put forward in the CPC Central Committee's Recommendations for the 13th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development, will serve as a guide for economic and social development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and beyond. To achieve the targets for economic and social development in 2016, we must keep firmly in mind the requirements for guiding the new normal in the economy and put into practice the new development philosophy. We need to channel greater energy into supply-side structural reform while increasing aggregate demand by an appropriate degree. We need to implement the general philosophy of keeping macro policies stable, industrial policies targeted, micro policies flexible, and reform policies practical, while also making sure social policies meet people's basic needs; at the same time, we need to make sure all policies are well coordinated and work together to create synergy. |
——宏觀政策要穩。穩定和完善宏觀經濟政策,加強區間調控、定向調控、相機調控,加大對實體經濟支持力度,確保經濟運行在合理區間。 | - Keeping macro policies stable We will ensure continuity in and make improvements to macroeconomic policies, strengthen range-based, targeted, and well-timed regulation, increase support for the real economy, and make sure the economy operates within an appropriate range. |
一方面,積極的財政政策要加大力度。今年擬安排全國財政赤字2.18萬億元,比去年增加5600億元,赤字率3%,其中,中央財政赤字1.4萬億元,地方財政赤字7800億元。一是階段性提高財政赤字率,在適當增加財政支出和中央預算內投資的同時,主要用于彌補減稅降費帶來的財政減收,保障政府應該承擔的支出責任。二是優化財政支出結構,創新財政支出方式,盤活財政資金存量,該保的保住,該減的減下來。三是適當增加地方專項債券發行,主要用于支持土地儲備、交通、水利及城鎮基礎設施等有一定收益的項目建設。繼續發行地方政府置換債券。 | On the one hand, we will increase the intensity of our proactive fiscal policy. The government deficit for 2016 is projected to be 2.18 trillion yuan nationwide, which represents a year-on-year increase of 560 billion yuan and a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3%. Of this amount, the central government deficit will be 1.4 trillion yuan, and the remaining 780 billion yuan will come from the local government deficit. First, a scaled-up deficit in the short term will allow us to increase government spending and central budgetary investment by an appropriate amount, and more importantly to make up for the decrease in government revenue caused by tax and fee reductions, thus ensuring the government can fully meet all of its spending responsibilities. Second, we will optimize the structure of budgetary expenditures, make innovations in the way budgetary funds are used, put surplus budgetary funds to better use, and increase or reduce budgetary expenditures as necessary. Third, an appropriate increase will be allowed in the issuance of special bonds by local governments mainly to support land reserve, transportation, water conservancy, urban infrastructure, and other projects that will yield a certain degree of revenue. Local governments will continue to issue bonds to replace outstanding debts. |
另一方面,穩健的貨幣政策要靈活適度。保持流動性合理充裕和社會融資總量適度增長,廣義貨幣(M2)余額增長13%左右,與去年實際增速基本持平。一是疏通傳導機制,降低實體經濟融資成本,提高金融服務實體經濟效率,推進解決融資難融資貴問題。二是拓寬債權、股權等融資渠道,發展項目收益債、高收益債券及可轉換債券、可續期債券、永續票據等股債結合產品,提高直接融資比重。三是完善人民幣匯率市場化形成機制,堅持有管理的浮動匯率制度,增強匯率雙向浮動彈性,保持人民幣匯率在合理均衡水平上的基本穩定,有效管控資本跨境異常流動。 | On the other hand, we will appropriately increase the flexibility of our prudent monetary policy. We will maintain reasonably ample liquidity and allow an appropriate increase in the aggregate financing of the economy. The M2 money supply is projected to grow by around 13% in 2016, roughly the same as last year. First, we will ensure a smooth transmission mechanism for monetary policy, lower financing costs for the real economy, ensure the financial sector serves the real economy more efficiently, and help solve the problem of financing being difficult and costly to obtain. Second, with the aim of expanding the issuance of bonds and equities as well as other financing channels, we will develop project revenue bonds, high-yield bonds, convertibles, extendable bonds, perpetual notes, and other hybrid securities. We will also raise the proportion of direct financing. Third, we will improve the market-based RMB exchange rate regime and continue to implement a managed floating exchange rate system, thereby allowing the RMB exchange rate to float more freely while also ensuring basic stability is maintained and the rate remains at an appropriate and balanced level. We will exert effective control over abnormal cross-border flow of capital. |
在有效實施財政政策、貨幣政策的同時,統籌運用產業政策、區域政策、投資政策、消費政策、價格政策,增強政策之間的協調配合,加強逆周期調節,為經濟發展和結構性改革營造穩定的宏觀環境。 | While effectively implementing fiscal and monetary policies, we will coordinate the use of and increase compatibility between policies on industrial development, regional development, investment, consumption, and prices and strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments so as to create a stable macro environment for economic development and structural reform. |
——產業政策要準。準確定位結構性改革方向,以供給創新促進需求增長,推動形成新的增長點。一是堅持創新驅動。強化創新激勵和創新成果應用,實施科技成果轉移轉化行動和知識產權戰略行動,改革科技成果產權制度,落實股權期權稅收政策,完善分紅獎勵辦法。發揮雙創、“互聯網+”集眾智匯眾力的乘數效應。二是注重激活存量。加快技術改造升級,修復現有產業和企業動力,提升產業層次,大力發展實體經濟,推動中小企業創新轉型發展。三是加快綠色發展。推進生態文明先行先試和制度建設,構建綠色產業體系和空間格局,引導形成綠色生產方式和生活方式。 | - Keeping industrial policies targeted The direction of structural reform needs to be accurately determined; we need to stimulate increases in demand by making innovations on the supply side, and encourage the emergence of new areas of growth. First, we will continue to pursue innovation-driven development. In order to increase incentives for innovation and promote its practical application, we will implement action plans to encourage the commoditization and application of scientific and technological advances and carry out the intellectual property rights strategy, reform the system of property rights on scientific and technological advances, carry out preferential tax policies on equity and option rights, and improve the methods for distributing dividends and giving rewards. We will give full play to the role of entrepreneurship and innovation initiatives and the Internet Plus in pooling the wisdom and strength of the general public. Second, we will focus on invigorating existing resources. We will accelerate technological transformation and upgrading, revitalize existing industries and enterprises, take our industries to a new level, redouble efforts to develop the real economy, and encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to develop on the basis of innovation and transformation. Third, we will move faster to promote green development. We will encourage exploration and experimentation in promoting ecological progress and improve related institutions, and work hard to put in place an industrial system and spatial planning that are eco-friendly to spur on the development of green production and promote a green lifestyle. |
——微觀政策要活。完善市場環境,激發企業活力和消費者潛力。一是以解決放權不同步、不協調、不到位等問題為重點,深化行政審批制度改革,進一步放寬市場準入,提高監管能力和水平,為大眾創業萬眾創新、企業投資經營和群眾辦事提供更加高效便捷的服務。二是保護各種所有制企業產權和合法利益,實施公平競爭審查制度,消除市場壁壘和地方保護,打破商品和要素自由流動限制,為各種所有制企業創新發展營造寬松的投資和市場經營環境。在項目核準、融資服務、財稅政策、土地使用等方面,對民間投資與政府、國企投資一視同仁。三是通過創新供給、改善供給質量和效率,提高有效供給能力,促進供給與需求有效對接,滿足不同消費群體多元化、個性化需求。 | - Keeping micro policies flexible We will improve the market environment, invigorate businesses, and unlock the potential of consumers. First, with a focus on addressing the issue of the unsynchronized, uncoordinated, and incomplete delegation of powers to lower level governments, we will deepen reform of the government review and approval system, further relax restrictions on market access, and impose stronger and more effective oversight, thereby ensuring more efficient and convenient services for entrepreneurship and innovation, business investment and operations, and the general public. Second, in order to protect the property rights and legitimate interests of enterprises under all types of ownership, we will implement a review system to ensure fair competition, remove market barriers and local protectionism, and lift restrictions to ensure the free flow of commodities and factors of production, thus creating a relaxed investment and operating environment in which enterprises under all types of ownership can develop themselves through innovation. We will ensure that nongovernmental investments and investments by governments and SOEs are treated equally in terms of project review, financing services, fiscal and tax policies, and the use of land. Third, we will enhance our ability to provide effective supply and ensure it better corresponds to demand by creating new supply and improving the quality and efficiency of supply, which will ensure that the diversified and personalized demand of different consumer groups is fully satisfied. |
——改革政策要實。進一步提高改革方案質量,完善落實機制,把握好改革試點,確保改革見到實效,使群眾有更多獲得感。一是堅持問題導向。抓住主要矛盾,著力推進牽一發動全身的重要改革,依靠改革解決發展中的突出矛盾和問題。加快推進行政審批、投融資、價格、國企、財稅金融、社會等領域改革。二是加強統籌協調。更加注重改革的系統性整體性協調性,做好重大和關鍵性改革的頂層設計,注重相關改革協同配套,形成改革合力。三是狠抓改革落地。解決好改革方案與實際相結合的問題、利益調整中的阻力問題、落實改革的責任擔當問題,發揮基層首創精神,鼓勵地方進行差別化探索,把改革落準落細落實。 | - Keeping reform policies practicable We will continue to raise the quality of our reform plans, improve reform implementation mechanisms, and make good use of pilot reforms, so that the results of reform are tangible and our people gain an increasingly greater sense of benefit. First, we will adhere to a problem-oriented approach. With a focus on resolving the main problems, we will channel our energy into carrying out important reforms that have a bearing on the overall situation, and we will rely on reforms to resolve the serious issues and problems that are hindering development. We will accelerate reform related to government review and approval; investment and financing; prices; SOEs; fiscal, tax, and financial systems; and social management. Second, we will strengthen coordination. In making reform more systemic, comprehensive, and balanced, we will ensure that major and critical reforms are guided by effective top-level planning, while also coordinating work on related reforms so as to create synergy. Third, we will spare no effort to ensure that reforms are fully implemented. We will work hard to address the issues of how to make sure that reform plans are tailored to reality, how to remove obstructions created during the adjustment of interests, and how to ensure the assumption of responsibilities for implementing reforms. We will give full rein to the initiative of community-level organizations and encourage local governments to explore which methods for implementing reform are best suited to local conditions, thereby ensuring that reform implementation is accurate, thorough, and effective. |
——社會政策要托底。守住民生底線,發揮社會保障的穩定器作用。一方面,增加公共服務供給。堅持普惠性、保基本、均等化、可持續方向,保障群眾基本生活,保障基本公共服務。另一方面,完善兜底性制度。分類扶持貧困家庭,增加失業救助、最低生活保障方面的財政資金,對無法依靠產業扶持和就業幫助脫貧的貧困家庭實施兜底保障政策。 | - Making sure social policies meet people's basic needs We will work hard to ensure the wellbeing of our people, giving full play to the role of the social safety net as a stabilizer. On the one hand, we will increase the supply of public services. Public services should be inclusive, equitable, and sustainable, and should guarantee the basic needs of the people. We will ensure everyone has access to basic necessities and basic public services. On the other hand, we will improve systems to ensure there is a cushion in place for those most in need. We will provide support to economically disadvantaged families based on their type of situation, increasing government funds for unemployment assistance and subsistence allowances, while ensuring that those poor families who are not supported by industry-led poverty-alleviation or employment assistance programs are covered by social security programs and have their basic needs met. |